Effects of restoration of coastal zones to mitigate the impact of climate change
Coastal flooding is a significant threat to communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas, driven by the increasing frequency and intensity of storm surges, sea-level rise, and extreme weather events. Effective early warning systems (EWS) are critical for mitigating the adverse impacts of these hazards by enabling timely evacuation and disaster response. Traditional EWS rely on numerical models, such as the XBeach model, to simulate hydrodynamic processes and predict flood extents. However, these models often require substantial computational resources, limiting their application in real-time scenarios.
Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising tool to address these limitations. By training predictive models on numerical simulation outputs, ML algorithms can significantly reduce computational time while maintaining accuracy. Despite this potential, the integration of numerical models and ML for developing coastal flooding EWS remains underexplored, particularly for small-scale, localized systems in vulnerable areas like Granelli in southeastern Sicily.
Development of a Predictive Framework
Model Validation
Supporting Coastal Risk Management
Numerical Simulations
Machine Learning
Monitoring Network
Satellite Data Integration
Flood Prediction Performance
The ANN-predicted flooded areas were closely aligned with the outputs of the XBeach model across all residential blocks.
The coefficient of determination (R²) values ranged between 0.938 and 0.976 for the blocks, indicating a strong correlation between the two approaches. For instance, Block B1 achieved an R² of 0.950, while Block B5 exhibited the highest performance with an R² of 0.976.
Validation
Data from the monitoring network confirmed the reliability of the ANN predictions by correlating water level variations with observed flooded areas. Satellite-derived NDWI analysis further validated the predictions, showing close alignment with both the ANN and XBeach results.